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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 59

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 1-T.Long punts 48 yards to DEN 11, Center-54-M.Overton. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 15 for 4 yards (22-J.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.60 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP