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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to HOU 31, Center-46-T.Pepper. 25-D.King to HOU 39 for 8 yards (53-M.Nzeocha).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.61 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 25, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model