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Houston Texans

HC David Culley
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2022-01-02 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

HOU
24.1%
SF
75.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Davis Mills (HOU): -0.110 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF defense: -0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • SF on 3 more days rest than HOU

Predicted Final Score

HOU 17
–
SF 27
Projected margin: SF by 10 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

HOU

Deshaun Watson QB Out Not injury related - personal matter
Chris Conley WR Questionable Knee
A.J. Moore S Questionable Illness
Jimmy Moreland CB Questionable Illness

SF

Azeez Al-Shaair LB Out Knee
Dre Greenlaw LB Out Groin
Maurice Hurst DT Out Calf
Jimmy Garoppolo QB Doubtful right Thumb
Talanoa Hufanga S Doubtful Knee
Elijah Mitchell RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 7
–
SF 23

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 02:00 TD HOU (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 13-B.Cooks for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – SF 0
  • Q2 00:03 FG SF (:03) 9-R.Gould 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. HOU 7 – SF 3
  • Q3 05:57 TD SF (5:57) 5-T.Lance pass short right to 25-E.Mitchell for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught HOU 7. 7-YAC HOU 7 – SF 9
  • Q4 10:06 TD SF (10:06) 5-T.Lance pass deep left to 19-D.Samuel for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught HOU 12. 12-YAC HOU 7 – SF 16
  • Q4 03:23 FG SF (3:23) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. HOU 7 – SF 20
  • Q4 01:16 FG SF (1:16) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. HOU 7 – SF 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:49) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to SF 22, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (11:04) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 52 yards to HOU 20, Center-46-T.Pepper. 25-D.King to HOU 35 for 15 yards (53-M.Nzeocha; 44-K.Juszczyk).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (8:53) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to SF 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at SF 22 for 9 yards (85-P.Brown).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 41%

    (4:27) 25-E.Mitchell right end to HOU 48 for -3 yards (20-Ju.Reid, 54-J.Martin).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 12 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 46%

    (2:25) 11-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to SF 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-33-A.Moore.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 54%

    (11:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 28 yards to HOU 12, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (9:36) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to SF 27, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 45 for 18 yards (43-N.Hewitt).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (1:28) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to HOU 31, Center-46-T.Pepper. 25-D.King to HOU 39 for 8 yards (53-M.Nzeocha).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 12 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:48) 11-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to SF 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 17-T.Benjamin to SF 25 for 11 yards (32-G.Wallow, 46-J.Weeks).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 87%

    (11:17) 5-T.Lance pass incomplete deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk (25-D.King).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:59) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to SF 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-B.Aiyuk MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 33. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 28 for -5 yards (8-T.Brooks).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.66 EP
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 23%

    (1:42) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 12 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 83%

    (12:08) 7-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 52%

    (6:54) 11-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 9 at the 9 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (3:23) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 73 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (2:44) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 12-N.Collins (27-D.Johnson).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 93%

    (1:16) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.