Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 63

Houston Texans 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(:48) 11-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to SF 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 17-T.Benjamin to SF 25 for 11 yards (32-G.Wallow, 46-J.Weeks).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.35 EP
71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 63, worth -2.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model