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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 24

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 5-T.Lance pass incomplete deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk (25-D.King).

The Three Options

GO +2.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.59 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model