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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 53

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.73 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.59 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.66 EP