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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 27

Houston Texans 7 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 7-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.88 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model