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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 9

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 9, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model