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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 73

Houston Texans 7 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:44) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 12-N.Collins (27-D.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.21 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 31, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model