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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 18

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +1.85 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 18, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 28, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model