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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 45

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:27) 25-E.Mitchell right end to HOU 48 for -3 yards (20-Ju.Reid, 54-J.Martin).

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.23 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model