4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 43

Houston Texans 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 11-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to SF 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-33-A.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.70 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model