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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 28

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 6-M.Badgley 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-K.Nelson, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.86 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model