4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
LV Away

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Rich Bisaccia
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2022-01-02 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 8.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

LV
27.3%
IND
72.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.135 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.119 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Carson Wentz (IND): +0.104 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

LV 19
–
IND 27
Projected margin: IND by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

LV

Denzel Perryman LB Questionable Ankle
Johnathan Hankins DT Questionable Back

IND

Andrew Sendejo S Out Concussion
Eric Fisher T Questionable Knee/Shoulder/Toe
Jack Doyle TE Questionable Knee
Mark Glowinski G Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 23
–
IND 20

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:56 TD LV (7:56) 28-J.Jacobs right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – IND 0
  • Q2 14:17 FG LV (14:17) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 10 – IND 0
  • Q2 10:11 FG IND (10:11) 6-M.Badgley 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-K.Nelson, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. LV 10 – IND 3
  • Q2 01:51 FG LV (1:51) 2-D.Carlson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 13 – IND 3
  • Q2 00:04 TD IND (:04) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 13 – IND 9
  • Q3 11:38 TD IND (11:38) 2-C.Wentz pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 13 – IND 16
  • Q4 11:24 TD LV (11:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on IND-23-K.Moore, Defensive Holding, declined. LV 19 – IND 17
  • Q4 02:00 FG IND (2:00) 6-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-K.Nelson, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. LV 20 – IND 20
  • Q4 00:02 FG LV (:02) 2-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 23 – IND 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:25) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to LV 28, Center-48-K.Nelson. 13-H.Renfrow pushed ob at LV 35 for 7 yards (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:57) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to LV 24, Center-48-K.Nelson. 13-H.Renfrow pushed ob at IND 35 for 41 yards (8-R.Sanchez).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 15 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 82%

    (14:17) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 83%

    (10:11) 6-M.Badgley 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-K.Nelson, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:37) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to IND 16, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 14 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:25) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to LV 43, Center-48-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 90%

    (3:19) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota right guard to IND 19 for 3 yards (99-D.Buckner).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 17 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 86%

    (1:51) 2-D.Carlson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 41%

    (12:24) 2-C.Wentz left guard to LV 45 for 2 yards (97-D.Square, 29-C.Hayward).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 14 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 54%

    (4:36) 8-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to LV 4, Center-48-K.Nelson, downed by IND-16-A.Dulin.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 13 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:52) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:51) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to LV 22, Center-48-K.Nelson. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 38 for 16 yards (58-B.Okereke).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 97%

    (11:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on IND-23-K.Moore, Defensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 90%

    (2:00) 6-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-K.Nelson, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 95%

    (:02) 2-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.