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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 60

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to IND 16, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.12 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 60, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 19, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model