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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 88

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to LV 43, Center-48-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.34 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 88, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model