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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 22

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(3:19) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota right guard to IND 19 for 3 yards (99-D.Buckner).

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.24 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model