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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 26

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 2-D.Carlson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.97 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model