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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 42

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 8-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to LV 4, Center-48-K.Nelson, downed by IND-16-A.Dulin.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.33 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 42, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model