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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 60

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(:52) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.85 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 60, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 19, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model