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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 22

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-K.Nelson, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +3.93 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model