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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 15

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(:02) 2-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +1.60 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 15, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model