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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to LV 28, Center-48-K.Nelson. 13-H.Renfrow pushed ob at LV 35 for 7 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.18 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 31, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model