Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 64

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(2:57) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to LV 24, Center-48-K.Nelson. 13-H.Renfrow pushed ob at IND 35 for 41 yards (8-R.Sanchez).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.88 EP
62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model