4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 17

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 2-M.Crosby 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.70 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 17, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.28 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model