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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2022-01-02 · 20:20 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow Spread 13.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

MIN
27.2%
GB
72.8%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.256 vs Sean Mannion (MIN) -0.285 EPA/dropback (MIN starting Sean Mannion in place of Kirk Cousins)
  • GB offense: +0.186 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • MIN defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 19
–
GB 26
Projected margin: GB by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

MIN

Cameron Dantzler CB Doubtful Calf
Michael Pierce DT Questionable Illness
Tyler Conklin TE Questionable Hamstring
Chazz Surratt LB Questionable Illness

GB

David Bakhtiari T Out Knee
Billy Turner G Out Knee
Jaire Alexander CB Out Shoulder
Tyler Lancaster DT Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 10
–
GB 37

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:51 FG GB (11:51) 2-M.Crosby 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. MIN 0 – GB 3
  • Q2 09:15 FG GB (9:15) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. MIN 0 – GB 6
  • Q2 04:18 TD GB (4:18) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 13-A.Lazard for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – GB 12
  • Q2 01:09 TD GB (1:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – GB 19
  • Q2 00:05 FG MIN (:05) 1-G.Joseph 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. MIN 3 – GB 20
  • Q3 09:34 TD GB (9:34) 28-A.Dillon up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – GB 26
  • Q3 03:27 FG GB (3:27) 2-M.Crosby 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. MIN 3 – GB 30
  • Q3 00:02 TD MIN (:02) (Shotgun) 14-S.Mannion pass short middle to 17-K.Osborn for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-R.Gary]. MIN 9 – GB 30
  • Q4 08:46 TD GB (8:46) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 10 – GB 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 10 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 93%

    (11:51) 2-M.Crosby 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 33%

    (9:12) 64-B.Brandel reported in as eligible. 14-S.Mannion pass incomplete short right to 30-C.Ham (91-P.Smith).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 96%

    (4:41) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Adams (24-M.Alexander) [90-S.Richardson].

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (3:00) 3-J.Berry punts 45 yards to GB 37, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-5-T.Smith.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (:41) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 24 yards to MIN 31, Center-46-S.Wirtel, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:37) 3-J.Berry punts 42 yards to GB 21, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 92%

    (9:15) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:44) 3-J.Berry punts 55 yards to GB 24, Center-42-A.DePaola. 82-D.Moore to GB 34 for 10 yards (44-J.Metellus).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:15) 3-J.Berry punts 44 yards to GB 36, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 82-D.Moore.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:32) 3-J.Berry punts 46 yards to GB 27, Center-42-A.DePaola. 82-D.Moore ran ob at GB 48 for 21 yards (5-T.Smith). PENALTY on MIN-5-T.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 48.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 29%

    (7:16) (Shotgun) 14-S.Mannion pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Jefferson.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 91%

    (3:27) 2-M.Crosby 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 38%

    (1:28) (No Huddle) 14-S.Mannion up the middle to GB 42 for 3 yards (98-A.Anderson).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (7:28) 3-J.Berry punts 64 yards to GB 12, Center-42-A.DePaola. 82-D.Moore to GB 14 for 2 yards (20-H.Hand).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 39 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 55%

    (1:56) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Touchback.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 9 at the 37 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 60%

    (:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Mannion pass incomplete deep right to 18-J.Jefferson.