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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 19

Green Bay Packers 27 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 2-M.Crosby 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.96 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 19, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP