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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 39

Green Bay Packers 37 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.94 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP