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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 37

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Green Bay Packers 37

What Actually Happened

(:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Mannion pass incomplete deep right to 18-J.Jefferson.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.06 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 37, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.96 EP