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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 11

Green Bay Packers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(4:41) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Adams (24-M.Alexander) [90-S.Richardson].

The Three Options

GO +2.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.58 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model