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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Philadelphia Eagles
4th & 2 at the 2
Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 10
What Actually Happened
(11:52) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.22 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
56% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.54 EP
- 44% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 2, worth +0.34 EP
KICK
+1.56 EP
- 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT
-0.44 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
