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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2022-01-02 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

PHI
62.0%
WAS
38.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.124 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Taylor Heinicke (WAS) -0.054 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) -0.003 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PHI 23
–
WAS 19
Projected margin: PHI by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

PHI

Shaun Bradley LB Out Shoulder
Miles Sanders RB Out Hand
Jordan Howard RB Questionable Stinger

WAS

William Jackson CB Out Calf
Montez Sweat DE Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Curtis Samuel WR Questionable Hamstring
James Smith-Williams DE Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 20
–
WAS 16

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:00 TD WAS (12:00) 32-J.Patterson left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – WAS 6
  • Q1 02:04 FG WAS (2:04) 3-J.Slye 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-12-R.Winslow. PHI 0 – WAS 10
  • Q2 11:52 TD PHI (11:52) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – WAS 10
  • Q2 05:40 FG WAS (5:40) 3-J.Slye 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-12-R.Winslow. PHI 7 – WAS 13
  • Q2 00:06 FG WAS (:06) 3-J.Slye 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-12-R.Winslow. PHI 7 – WAS 16
  • Q3 07:27 TD PHI (7:27) 35-B.Scott right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – WAS 16
  • Q4 11:45 FG PHI (11:45) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 17 – WAS 16
  • Q4 02:25 FG PHI (2:25) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 20 – WAS 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 87%

    (7:05) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard up the middle to WAS 24 for no gain (98-M.Ioannidis, 31-K.Curl).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (2:04) 3-J.Slye 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-12-R.Winslow.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 99%

    (11:52) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 12 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 90%

    (5:40) 3-J.Slye 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-12-R.Winslow.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 43%

    (2:14) 8-A.Siposs punts 39 yards to WAS 6, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-33-J.Scott.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 63%

    (:06) 3-J.Slye 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-12-R.Winslow.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (7:27) 35-B.Scott right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:30) 12-R.Winslow punts 38 yards to PHI 42, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 45%

    (4:19) 8-A.Siposs punts 35 yards to WAS 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 87%

    (11:45) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 33%

    (7:36) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short right to 15-D.Milne (29-A.Maddox).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 50%

    (5:36) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts left guard to WAS 39 for 3 yards (95-C.Toohill).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 88%

    (2:25) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.