Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 80

Washington Commanders 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

(5:30) 12-R.Winslow punts 38 yards to PHI 42, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model