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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 24

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.37 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP