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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 49

Washington Commanders 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(7:36) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short right to 15-D.Milne (29-A.Maddox).

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.65 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model