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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 42

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(5:36) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts left guard to WAS 39 for 3 yards (95-C.Toohill).

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.97 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.87 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model