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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 23

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.27 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model