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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 13

Washington Commanders 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 3-J.Slye 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-12-R.Winslow.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.66 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 13, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model