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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 3-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-19-S.Hofrichter.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.86 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model