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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2022-01-02 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -14.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

TB
67.5%
NYJ
32.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to TB: Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.237 vs Tom Brady (TB) +0.150 EPA/dropback
  • NYJ defense: +0.170 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • TB defense: -0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 24
–
NYJ 19
Projected margin: TB by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

TB

Shaquil Barrett LB Out Knee
Jason Pierre-Paul LB Out Shoulder
Richard Sherman CB Doubtful Achilles
Jamel Dean CB Questionable Illness
Sean Murphy-Bunting CB Questionable Illness
Antonio Brown WR Questionable Ankle
Mike Evans WR Questionable Hamstring
Justin Watson WR Questionable Quadricep
Antoine Winfield S Questionable Foot

NYJ

Jamison Crowder WR Doubtful Calf

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 28
–
NYJ 24

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:09 TD NYJ (12:09) 69-C.McDermott reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 32-Mi.Carter. 10-B.Berrios right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Run reverse handoff from direct snap TB 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q1 05:46 TD TB (5:46) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – NYJ 7
  • Q2 13:47 TD NYJ (13:47) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 10-B.Berrios for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ-76-G.Fant was injured during the play. TB 7 – NYJ 13
  • Q2 10:54 FG TB (10:54) 3-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-19-S.Hofrichter. TB 10 – NYJ 14
  • Q2 00:06 FG NYJ (:06) 15-E.Pineiro 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. TB 10 – NYJ 17
  • Q3 07:03 TD NYJ (7:03) 25-T.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 10 – NYJ 23
  • Q3 00:33 TD TB (:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 84-C.Brate for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – NYJ 24
  • Q4 07:39 FG TB (7:39) 3-R.Succop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-19-S.Hofrichter. TB 20 – NYJ 24
  • Q4 00:21 TD TB (:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Grayson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 26 – NYJ 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 90%

    (10:54) 3-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-19-S.Hofrichter.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 31%

    (8:50) 7-B.Mann punts 38 yards to TB 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 11 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 22%

    (2:31) 19-S.Hofrichter punts 35 yards to NYJ 17, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 46%

    (1:01) 7-B.Mann punts 32 yards to TB 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 20 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:15) 19-S.Hofrichter punts 39 yards to NYJ 34, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 84-C.Brate for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (14:13) 7-B.Mann punts 46 yards to TB 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 38-K.Barner to TB 37 for 3 yards (42-T.Hennessy; 45-H.Nasirildeen).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 55%

    (12:11) 19-S.Hofrichter punts 30 yards to NYJ 9, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:22) 7-B.Mann punts 38 yards to NYJ 47, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (7:39) 3-R.Succop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-19-S.Hofrichter.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 7 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (2:17) 69-C.McDermott reported in as eligible. 2-Z.Wilson up the middle to TB 7 for no gain (9-J.Tryon, 31-A.Winfield).