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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 48

New York Jets 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 7-B.Mann punts 38 yards to TB 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.67 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model