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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New York Jets
4th & 9 at the 42
New York Jets 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10
What Actually Happened
(1:01) 7-B.Mann punts 32 yards to TB 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
+0.06 EP
-
32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.47 EP
- 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.57 EP
KICK
-0.01 EP
- 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
- 54% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT
+0.18 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
