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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – New York Jets 24

What Actually Happened

(:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 84-C.Brate for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.64 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 4, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model