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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 20 at the 80

New York Jets 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 7-B.Mann punts 46 yards to TB 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 38-K.Barner to TB 37 for 3 yards (42-T.Hennessy; 45-H.Nasirildeen).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.16 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model