4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 39

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – New York Jets 24

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 19-S.Hofrichter punts 30 yards to NYJ 9, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.42 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP