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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 91

New York Jets 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 7-B.Mann punts 38 yards to NYJ 47, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +1.09 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 91, worth -5.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 48, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model