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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – New York Jets 24

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 3-R.Succop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-19-S.Hofrichter.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 9, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model