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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 3-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.04 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT +0.56 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model