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Carolina Panthers

HC Matt Rhule
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TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2022-01-09 · 16:25 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 11.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

CAR
18.2%
TB
81.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.195 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Tom Brady (TB) +0.188 vs Sam Darnold (CAR) -0.179 EPA/dropback
  • TB offense: +0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • TB defense: -0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 17
–
TB 29
Projected margin: TB by 12 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

CAR

Sean Chandler S Doubtful Groin
Robby Anderson WR Questionable Quadricep
Derrick Brown DT Questionable Elbow

TB

Shaquil Barrett LB Out Knee
Ronald Jones RB Out Ankle
Jason Pierre-Paul LB Out Shoulder
Rashard Robinson CB Out Groin
Justin Watson WR Out Quadricep
Richard Sherman CB Doubtful Achilles
Ryan Jensen C Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 17
–
TB 41

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:27 TD CAR (7:27) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 30-C.Hubbard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – TB 0
  • Q2 11:14 FG TB (11:14) 3-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. CAR 7 – TB 3
  • Q2 00:19 TD TB (:19) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 6-L.Bell for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – TB 9
  • Q3 11:59 TD TB (11:59) (No Huddle) 21-K.Vaughn up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – TB 16
  • Q3 04:48 FG CAR (4:48) 3-L.Hajrullahu 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards. CAR 10 – TB 17
  • Q4 15:00 TD TB (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – TB 23
  • Q4 10:40 TD CAR (10:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-R.Anderson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-C.Gill]. CAR 16 – TB 24
  • Q4 07:41 TD TB (7:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 17 – TB 30
  • Q4 05:09 FG TB (5:09) 3-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. CAR 17 – TB 34
  • Q4 04:17 TD TB (4:17) 10-S.Miller right end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 17 – TB 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:55) 8-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to CAR 25, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (4:19) 2-Dj.Moore right end to CAR 47 for 13 yards (31-A.Winfield).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 58%

    (:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 2-Dj.Moore (24-C.Davis).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 50%

    (12:21) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-M.Evans to CAR 28 for 14 yards (27-K.Robinson). CAR-29-R.Melvin was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 90%

    (11:14) 3-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 99%

    (4:58) 14-S.Darnold up the middle to TB 2 for no gain (96-S.McLendon). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.)

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (3:38) 8-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to TB 48, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 48%

    (1:55) 10-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to TB 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:05) 10-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to TB 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 1-J.Darden to TB 17 for 4 yards (42-S.Franklin).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 4 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (9:33) 8-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to CAR 31, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 94%

    (4:48) 3-L.Hajrullahu 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 92%

    (10:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-R.Anderson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-C.Gill].

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 89%

    (5:09) 3-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 72 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:23) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-R.Anderson to CAR 34 for 6 yards (52-K.Britt).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 82%

    (1:56) 3-R.Succop 46 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 11 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 16-B.Zylstra.