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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 2

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 14-S.Darnold up the middle to TB 2 for no gain (96-S.McLendon). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.)

The Three Options

GO +3.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.22 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model